arXiv:2606.30774v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We study when natural-language feedback produces improvement beyond the gains obtainable from repeated attempts alone. In multi-turn language agent setting, higher final accuracy can reflect useful feedback, but it can also arise from resampling, format correction, or additional test-time computation. To separate these effects, we introduce a controlled student-teacher protocol across Omni-MATH, Codeforces, BBEH Linguini, and ARC-AGI1, evaluating thirteen open-weight models in both student and teacher roles. We compare external feedback, self-feedback, and unguided self-refinement, while varying interaction history, task difficulty, and teacher access to privileged task information. Across settings, we find that multi-turn improvement is often not evidence of feedback use: self-generated feedback adds little beyond unguided self-refinement, whereas the strongest external teachers produce substantially larger feedback-specific gains, suggesting that useful feedback must provide guidance beyond generic retry. Dense student-teacher interaction matrices further show that interactive gains are driven more by the student’s ability to use feedback than by the teacher’s identity, although teacher choice remains important for a fixed student. These results suggest that feedback-based agents should be evaluated against repeated-attempt baselines, and that ability to act on feedback, not merely feedback availability, is a central bottleneck for interactive improvement. We release our controlled student-teacher evaluation framework at https://j-lojek.github.io/feedback-generation-is-a-bottleneck/.

arXiv:2606.30840v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: LLM agents are becoming central to information retrieval: they issue retrieval queries, synthesize answers, and increasingly serve as judges for IR evaluation. Improving the prompts that control these agents is an optimization problem, but in applied IR settings it often looks less like blind search and more like debugging. Engineers need to know which behavior failed, which nearby behavior still worked, what distinguishes the two, and whether a prompt edit improves held-out quality without introducing regressions.
We present Contrastive Reflection, an iterative prompt-optimization framework for agentic IR workflows. The framework starts from a task-centric quality definition: QA agents expose retrieval or reasoning traces, and grading agents expose dimension-level scores and rationales. These structured traces are used to identify error-anchored behavioral slices, add nearby successful examples from the same region, and ask a Teacher LLM to propose a targeted prompt edit. Candidate edits are accepted only when validation performance improves, optionally subject to regression checks. We instantiate the framework with a tree-based slice selector, but the contribution is the contrastive reflection loop rather than the tree itself.
On a public HotpotQA retrieval-augmented QA setup, one tree-selected contrastive repair improves held-out exact-match accuracy from 51.4% to 60.4%. Failure-only and random-evidence variants improve less and break more previously correct examples. A light instruction-only comparison places the method near modern prompt optimizers: MIPROv2 reaches 59.4% and GEPA 57.0%. The result is an interpretable optimization loop for IR agents, aimed at making prompt repair more inspectable and validation-driven.

arXiv:2606.30846v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Discovering simulation models for reuse remains a fundamental challenge in Modeling and Simulation (M&S). When many models coexist, identifying those that align with a given modeling intent remains difficult. Recent advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly retrieval-based approaches, offer a promising pathway to operate at this semantic layer. In this paper, we present an experimental study investigating the impact of data representation, transformer-based embedding models, and retrieval strategies on the discovery of simulation models using natural language queries. We evaluated performance across multiple query types using standard information retrieval metrics, including recall@5 and nDCG@5. Results show that data representation matters, open-source embedding models can achieve high performance, and reranking methods are important, especially as query complexity increases. This work provides a baseline for AI-driven model discovery and discusses its role in advancing toward AI-driven composability and interoperability.

arXiv:2606.30850v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are typically deployed in multi-turn conversations, where each turn provides new evidence that should reduce epistemic uncertainty about their environment. Acting rationally then requires inferring the unobserved quantities that govern it and updating beliefs about them as evidence accumulates. Yet most evaluations only score the model’s final-turn answer in a single-turn format, leaving this process unexamined. We ask how closely LLMs’ belief updates match those of a rational Bayesian reasoner in multi-turn settings, and introduce BayesBench, a suite of simulation environments that probe this across three progressively complex tasks: (i) Bayesian estimation, where the model infers an unknown parameter from sequential evidence; (ii) Bayesian prediction, where the model turns inferred beliefs about a latent variable into outcome forecasts; and (iii) latent-framed Bayesian prediction, where observations are filtered through a user-persona framing, requiring joint inference over the latent state and the persona. Across seven LLMs (3B–70B), scaling improves latent inference and evidence accumulation, with updates occasionally matching the Bayesian posterior. However, these gains do not reliably carry over to downstream prediction, exposing a gap between inferring latent structure and using it to rationally update beliefs about the target outcome.

arXiv:2606.30852v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Reasoning models spend different amounts of useful computation across instances, but it remains unclear when a learned stopping rule improves over simple confidence or convergence thresholds. We study this question with LearnStop, a hidden-state-free checkpoint stopper for reasoning language models. At fixed budget checkpoints, LearnStop probes a short answer from the current reasoning prefix and predicts prefix correctness from online features such as answer confidence, entropy, prefix vote share, answer stability, and backtracking-marker density. Across 18 task-model settings spanning GSM8K, MATH-500, MMLU-Pro, AIME-90, GPQA, Qwen3, and DeepSeek-R1 distillations, the answer is task-dependent. On free-form math, learned multi-feature stopping improves the fixed-budget frontier and often beats scalar exits: on GSM8K with Qwen3-32B, the empirical frontier reaches a post-hoc peak adapt gain of +0.157, validation-selected operating points preserve positive gains, and the paired gain over the strongest scalar baseline is +0.028. On multiple-choice and very hard settings, scalar confidence, entropy, or stability rules are competitive or stronger. We therefore frame learned stopping not as a universal replacement for scalar exits, but as a tool whose value depends on trajectory structure. We further provide validation-selected operating points, paired bootstrap tests, finite-grid lost-correct risk calibration, cost accounting under KV-fork, prefix-cache, and black-box regimes, H100 serving profiles, checkpoint-schedule sweeps, transfer analyses, and robustness checks. The main practical finding is that learned stopping is useful when many questions become correct before full budget but do not exhibit a single reliable scalar stopping signal; its benefits largely disappear when confidence or answer convergence already solves the stopping problem.