arXiv:2605.23909v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We investigate the calibration of large language models’ (LLMs’) confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds accuracy, on average. Importantly, however, this tendency is moderated by a powerful hard-easy effect, wherein overconfidence is greatest on difficult tests; by contrast, easy tests actually show substantial underconfidence. We develop LifeEval, a test for evaluating model calibration across levels of difficulty.

arXiv:2605.23908v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We are in the midst of large-scale industrial and academic efforts to automate the processes of scientific, technological and creative production through AI-driven assistants. Historically, a fundamental property of these processes in their human form has been their open-endedness: their capacity for generating a seemingly endless supply of novel and meaningful new forms. Do artificial agents have any capacity for such fruitful unguided discovery? To answer this question, we turn to Picbreeder, the canonical exemplar of human-driven open-ended search, in which users collaboratively generated a diverse library of images through interactive evolution of small neural networks. We replicate Picbreeder, replacing human users with frontier Vision Language Models (VLMs). We observe clear qualitative differences between the output of our system and the historical human baseline, and attempt to characterize them using metrics of phylogenetic complexity and visual and semantic salience and novelty. In an effort to identify some of the causal factors contributing these differences, we study the addition of exploratory noise to the agents’ selection process, of behavioral diversity between agents, and of narrative momentum in the form of memory of past actions. We make our code available at https://github.com/smearle/picbreeder-vlm.

arXiv:2605.23926v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Reasoning-capable large language models solve hard problems by emitting long chains of thought, paying heavily in latency, GPU time, and energy. Casual inspection of their traces reveals extensive reformulation, verification, and circular self-reflection, yet how much of this deliberation is actually necessary has never been measured at scale or explained from first principles. This paper closes both gaps.
We formalise reasoning redundancy directly in terms of the reasoning model itself: the redundancy of a correct trace is the largest fraction of its trailing segmented steps that can be truncated while $pi$, forced to terminate thinking and emit a final answer, still produces the correct answer. A large-scale quantification across four frontier reasoning models and two mathematical benchmarks shows that step-level redundancy is consistently high — between 61% and 93% across the 8 (model, benchmark) conditions we study, with the median critical prefix equal to a single segmented step in six of the eight conditions — that the finding is robust to the choice of judge family, and that although $rho$ decreases with problem difficulty on MATH-500, all four models remain substantially redundant ($rho in [46%, 85%]$) even on the hardest Level-5 problems.
We then prove that this redundancy is a structural consequence of length-agnostic outcome rewards, not a model-specific artefact: under any such reward, no finite expected stopping time is optimal. The result holds regardless of RL algorithm, base model, data distribution, or whether the policy is obtained via RL or distillation; over-thinking is therefore not a bug to be patched in individual models but a structural property of how current reasoning models are trained. Code: https://github.com/zhiyuanZhai20/how-much-thinking-is-enough

arXiv:2605.23928v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We present Context, the intelligence layer of the Magarshak Architecture, which replaces reactive query-response chatbots with proactive goal-directed agents that advance shared tasks without waiting for user prompts. The architecture rests on three mutually reinforcing mechanisms. Write-time context assembly precomputes enriched typed attributes via Groker agents, assembling interaction context as a deterministic pure function of graph state; context blocks are byte-identical across turns between semantic changes, enabling near-100% KV-cache reuse. Composable sandboxed wisdom programs form a governed library of LM-generated imperative programs declaratively wired to goal types via typed stream relations, composed via phase ordering, and executed at interaction time without further LM calls. Proactive goal stream state machines drive conversations toward terminal states by inspecting graph state and emitting structured interaction content (option arrays, governance affordances, clarification prompts) without awaiting user input. We prove six formal results: the Context Stability Theorem, bounding per-turn LM cost as a function of semantic change rate; a Program Composition Correctness Theorem; a Declarative Wiring Soundness Theorem; the Proactive Dominance Theorem, proving proactive agents weakly dominate reactive agents on expected turns-to-terminal-state; Coordination Overhead Elimination and Quality Preservation, establishing Pareto improvements in multi-participant goal chats; and a Cross-Platform Vote Consistency Theorem. Implemented in the open-source Qbix / Safebox / Safebots stack.

arXiv:2605.23929v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Modern AI systems increasingly rely on workflows composed of multiple interacting agents, some powered by large language models (LLMs) and others by conventional computational modules. This paper analyzes the fundamental tradeoffs between latency, reliability, and cost in LLM-enabled agentic workflows. We introduce performance models for both LLM and non-LLM agents that capture the relationship between computational effort and output quality, incorporating the impact of reasoning and output tokens for LLM agents using a parametric exponential reliability function. Then, we study the design of sequential workflows under latency and cost constraints. Main results include a water-filling token allocation policy and characterizations of optimal workflow reliability in terms of shadow prices.

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