arXiv:2607.06757v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Agent-based modeling (ABM) has the capability to model millions of individuals and their interactions, which is useful for policy making. However, ABMs have traditionally relied on static prior, which prevents the models from adapting to real-time changes. Our research provides a novel approach to addressing this information gap. Large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to predict human decision-making. Here, we introduce a scalable Hybrid Agent-based and Language-driven Epidemic (HALE) modeling framework that leverages LLMs to predict human decision-making in an ABM simulation. As a proof-of-concept, we use HALE to simulate COVID-19 and its effects in Salt Lake County, UT.

arXiv:2607.06760v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Autonomous systems under partial observability act on beliefs, not raw sensor events. QANTIS treats the quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service in that loop: it receives a prior and an observation model, estimates the rare-event evidence term, and returns an ordinary posterior to a classical planner. This paper asks whether that service can be reused across a sequential Tiger POMDP horizon on present IBM Heron hardware without corrupting the planner-facing posterior. We answer with a controlled hardware case study rather than an end-to-end autonomy or wall-clock speedup claim. The study compares no amplification, guarded Grover amplification, and all-step fixed-point amplification on the same trajectory, then checks whether the returned posterior would change the downstream action. All-step FPAA preserves the Tiger posterior across the reported 8-step and 12-step primary runs, and the 20-step and 32-step controls remain inside the same operating band. In every reported decision check, the hardware posterior and the exact Bayes posterior select the same immediate action. Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation near zero and near one, while a rare-event sweep maps the logical sample-complexity envelope for one-in-a-million evidence. The result is an operating envelope for a hardware-calibrated belief-update primitive, not a standalone hardware-advantage claim.

arXiv:2607.06764v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Recent progress on ARC-AGI-1 from disclosed architectures has come broadly from two regimes: heavy test-time compute over frontier models (evolutionary search, exhaustive sampling, extended chain-of-thought), or benchmark-specific training in which small models are fine-tuned on ARC data, often with task-specialized architectures. We study a third regime: an open-weight model in non-thinking mode (DeepSeek V3.2) under a strict budget, with no ARC-specific fine-tuning. We study what is recoverable through architecture alone, building agentic harnesses that decompose pattern-discovery and program-synthesis stages explicitly. First, we introduce an Explorer-Definer Pipeline that separates pattern discovery from executable transformation synthesis, implemented as a two-stage agent pipeline. Next, we present the Reflective Orchestrator, which augments the pipeline with autonomous exploration of new transformations when previous hypotheses fail on training pairs. On the ARC-AGI-1 public 400-task evaluation set, the pipeline reaches 57.50% pass@2 at $0.25 per task, and the orchestrator reaches 67.25% pass@2 at $0.62 per task. Together these architectures lift a 15.50% one-shot baseline by ~52 points without benchmark-specific training or heavy test-time compute. Furthermore, the orchestrator-driven lift tests a falsifiable diagnostic the pipeline produces; unbiased pass@k analysis suggests the pipeline is generation-bound, not selection-bound (selection via training-pair accuracy captures ~95% of the candidate ceiling) and predicts that significant improvement requires broader generation, not better ranking. The orchestrator implements this prediction via adaptive re-exploration and confirms it (unbiased pass@1 lift +9.81 pp, matching selection-mediated pass@2 lift). An additional pipeline ablation identifies its think tool as a significant component, with removal reducing pass@2 by 5.75 pp.

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