arXiv:2604.26091v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: We study reliability in autonomous language-model agents that translate user mandates into validated tool actions under real capital. The setting is DX Terminal Pro, a 21-day deployment in which 3,505 user-funded agents traded real ETH in a bounded onchain market. Users configured vaults through structured controls and natural-language strategies, but only agents could choose normal buy/sell trades. The system produced 7.5M agent invocations, roughly 300K onchain actions, about $20M in volume, more than 5,000 ETH deployed, roughly 70B inference tokens, and 99.9% settlement success for policy-valid submitted transactions. Long-running agents accumulated thousands of sequential decisions, including 6,000+ prompt-state-action cycles for continuously active agents, yielding a large-scale trace from user mandate to rendered prompt, reasoning, validation, portfolio state, and settlement. Reliability did not come from the base model alone; it emerged from the operating layer around the model: prompt compilation, typed controls, policy validation, execution guards, memory design, and trace-level observability. Pre-launch testing exposed failures that text-only benchmarks rarely measure, including fabricated trading rules, fee paralysis, numeric anchoring, cadence trading, and misread tokenomics. Targeted harness changes reduced fabricated sell rules from 57% to 3%, reduced fee-led observations from 32.5% to below 10%, and increased capital deployment from 42.9% to 78.0% in an affected test population. We show that capital-managing agents should be evaluated across the full path from user mandate to prompt, validated action, and settlement.

arXiv:2604.26095v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: {Closed-loop inverse source localization and characterization (ISLC) requires a mobile agent to select measurements that localize sources and infer latent field parameters under strict time constraints.} {The core challenge lies in the belief-space objective: valid uncertainty estimation requires expensive Bayesian inference, whereas using fast learned belief model leads to reward hacking, in which the policy exploits approximation errors rather than actually reducing uncertainty.} {We propose textbf{Distill-Belief}, a teacher–student framework that decouples correctness from efficiency. A Bayes-correct particle-filter teacher maintains the posterior and supplies a dense information-gain signal, while a compact student distills the posterior into belief statistics for control and an uncertainty certificate for stopping. At deployment, only the student is used, yielding constant per-step cost.} {Experiments on seven field modalities and two stress tests show that Distill-Belief consistently reduces sensing cost and improves success, posterior contraction, and estimation accuracy over baselines, while mitigating reward hacking.}

arXiv:2604.26106v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks produce accuracy leaderboards but little insight into why some forecasters are more accurate than others. We introduce Bench to the Future 2 (BTF-2), 1,417 pastcasting questions with a frozen 15M-document research corpus in which agents reproducibly research and forecast offline, producing full reasoning traces. BTF-2 detects accuracy differences of 0.004 Brier score, and can distinguish differential agent strengths in research vs. judgment. We build a forecaster 0.011 Brier more accurate than any single frontier agent, and use it to evaluate agent strategic reasoning without hindsight bias. We find the better forecaster differs primarily in its pre-mortem analysis of its blind spots and consideration of black swans. Expert human forecasters found the dominant strategic reasoning failures of frontier agents are in assessing political and business leaders’ incentives, judging their likelihood to follow through on stated plans, and modeling institutional processes.

arXiv:2604.26211v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: In order to automate AI research we introduce a full, end-to-end framework, OMEGA: Optimizing Machine learning by Evaluating Generated Algorithms, that starts at idea generation and ends with executable code. Our system combines structured meta-prompt engineering with executable code generation to create new ML classifiers. The OMEGA framework has been utilized to generate several novel algorithms that outperform scikit-learn baselines across a robust selection of 20 benchmark datasets (infinity-bench). You can access models discussed in this paper and more in the python package: pip install omega-models.

arXiv:2604.26120v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Behavioral logs provide rich signals for user modeling, but are noisy and interleaved across diverse intents. Recent work uses LLMs to generate interpretable natural-language personas from user logs, yet evaluation often emphasizes downstream utility, providing limited assurance of persona quality itself. We propose a hierarchical framework that aggregates user actions into intent memories and induces multiple evidence-grounded personas by clustering and labeling these memories. We formulate persona induction as an optimization problem over persona quality-captured by cluster cohesion, persona-evidence alignment, and persona truthfulness-and train the persona model using a groupwise extension of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Experiments on a large-scale service log and two public datasets show that our method induces more coherent, evidence-grounded, and trustworthy personas, while also improving future interaction prediction.

arXiv:2604.25943v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Efficient and stable solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) is central to scientific and engineering applications, yet existing numerical solvers rely heavily on matrix based discretizations, while learning based methods require costly training and often suffer from limited generalization. In this work, we proposes a PDE energy driven framework that solves PDEs through physically constrained diffusion iterations, without relying on classical matrix based finite element assembly or data driven neural network training. The proposed method evolves arbitrary random initial fields through PDE energy driven implicit iterations combined with Gaussian smoothing, while strictly enforcing boundary conditions at each iteration. The proposed formulation is applied to representative one dimensional Poisson, Heat, and viscous Burgers equations, covering both steady state and transient problems. Numerical results demonstrate stable convergence to the unique physical solution from random initializations, with accurate resolution of sharp gradients and controlled Mean Squared Error (MSE) across a wide range of discretization parameters. Detailed comparisons with analytical solutions indicate that the framework achieves competitive accuracy and stability. Overall, the proposed framework provides a fast, flexible, and physically consistent alternative to traditional numerical solvers, offering a potential pathway for scalable PDE solutions in both research and engineering applications.